1	An Overview of Gun Violence Reduction Strategies: Promises and Prospects Scott H. Decker, PhD School of Criminology and Criminal Justice Arizona State University
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5	Background Nature of Gang Problem in St. Louis “Emerging gang city” in the late 1980’s Relatively disorganized street gangs Violence is a hallmark of gang activity Importance of Ecology and the Neighborhood Context: Why study aggregate units? Neighborhood Mechanisms: Density of social networks and interactions (Sampson, 2004) Risks of violence due to geographical proximity. Given this, it’s important to examine residential patterns of offenders when developing crime control policies and programs (Weed and Seed, PSN, Re-entry).
6	Ultimately…… What does this entail?: We must understand where known offenders live, the structural context of high density offender areas, and if these phenomena have consequences for risks of gun assault in these areas. Resulting knowledge: This can help us understand the disparity in violent crime and victimization risk within our urban cities and where to target our efforts at prevention and abatement.
7	Data and Methods Gang Member Residential Data (1993-2003) (N=1,935): Gang Tracking System of the Regional Justice Information Service (REJIS) of St. Louis, MO. Indicators of Violent Crime (2004): Gun Assault Incidents from the St. Louis Metropolitan PD. Structural Contexts of Communities: Census 2000
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11	Density of Gang Membership Within St. Louis City
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13	Key Findings 1. Gun assault is the most clustered violent crime in St. Louis. 2. Gang membership is also significantly clustered in certain neighborhoods in the city. 3. These two phenomena are significantly correlated. This correlation holds up in the face of demographic and theoretical controls. 4. The clustering of gang membership specifically predicts gun assault, but no other form of violent crime. It is the gun that matters.
14	Key Findings Cont. 5. The concentration of gun assaults in the north and southeast are accounted for by the concentration of gang membership, rather than diffusion. 6. Where you live and who you live by determines neighborhood levels of gun assault. “Know thy neighbor.”
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16	"GUN RECOVERY STRATEGIES" GUN RECOVERY STRATEGIES Police use seven tactics to recover firearms and potentially reduce gun violence: ■ Search warrants ■ Pedestrian stops ■ Arrests ■ Gun buybacks ■ Traffic stops ■ Gun turn-in campaigns ■ Consent searches
17	"Important Considerations in Gun Response..." Important Considerations in Gun Response Strategies Include Risk Probability of Seizure Crime Reduction Impact Risk. A gun recovery intervention should first consider the level of risk for each strategy. Search warrants and arrests generally identify high-risk offenders who pose a danger to officers. Because consent searches target individuals considered to be at risk for involvement in crime, either as victims or offenders, they are likely to have a greater crime-reduction payoff than pedestrian or traffic stops—while posing less risk for police.
18	"Probability of gun seizure" Probability of gun seizure. A second criterion for choosing a gun recovery intervention is the probability that a gun will be found. Those efforts most likely to yield guns—search warrants and gun buybacks—are the most dangerous and least dangerous tactics, respectively. Although traffic and pedestrian stops are deemed the least likely to get guns, they account for the majority of gun seizures because of the sheer volume of these stops—literally thousands per year. Search warrants, gun buybacks, and gun turn-in campaigns have a high yield in firearms but account for only a fraction of the guns recovered by the police. Guns recovered through buybacks and turnin campaigns are the least likely to have been involved in crime.
19	"Crime reduction and social costs" Crime reduction and social costs. Another consideration is whether the removal of guns through a given tactic or set of tactics results in a net reduction in crime. Search warrants and arrests usually are executed because an offense has occurred or is imminent; therefore, they are most likely to reduce criminal activity in the near term. All of the other tactics, including consent searches, are less likely to identify an individual involved in crime during gun seizure or in the near future. Tactics that have an immediate effect on crime have an intuitive appeal. Search warrants, arrests, and some traffic and pedestrian stops have this potential if officers are trained to look for firearms. But traffic and pedestrian stops can have substantial social implications. A major complaint about U.S. law enforcement is the alleged use of racial profiling to stop minorities in proportions far greater than their representation in the population. Thus, traffic and pedestrian stops generate distrust of the police for many Americans.
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