Using Hotter/Colder-
Than-Expected-Spot-
Methods to Map
the Concentration of Research
Opportunities

Orange County Gang Incident Tracking System GITS

Gang Crime is Not Randomly Distributed in the County

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Violent Gang Crime is Even More Stable Over Time

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ID Hot & Cold Spots

Theoretical Model

Does Spatial Distribution Matter?

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Total Orange County Hot & Cold Tracts
OLS Model

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Total Orange County Hot & Cold Tracts
Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation

Total Orange County Hot & Cold Spot
Change

Total County
Error (auto correlation)

Narrowing The Focus of Analysis

Violent Gang Incident Concentration

Process of Elimination

LISA Map of Violent Gang Crime
(tracts reduced from 484 to 310)

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Reduced Orange County Hot & Cold Spots
OLS Model

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Reduced Orange County Hot & Cold Tracts
Spatial Auto Correlation Correction

Reduced Orange County Hot & Cold Spot
Flip Flops

Reduced County
Error (auto correlation)

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Accounting For Spatial Autocorrelation

Accounting For Spatial Autocorrelation On Reduced Sample

Conclusions

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OLS Regression Results

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Problems With Prior Work

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